Publications

Recent unpublished work

Integrative demographic modeling reduces uncertainty in estimated rates of species’ historical range shifts
Castilla AR, A Brown, S Hoban, AG Noakes, JD Robinson, J Romero-Severson, AB Smith, AE Strand, JR Tipton, and A Dawson

Climatic factors affect patterns of occupancy and density more strongly than biogeographic contributions, across a trailing-edge mainland
EA Beever, et al.

Harnessing the growing diversity of species distribution modeling software: What is out there?
J Kass, et al.

Aligning renewable energy expansion with species’ range shifts
U Ashraf, TL Morelli, AB Smith, and RR Hernandez

Choosing the appropriate background for species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling
AB Smith

Published/accepted/in press

Beyond climate? Factors determining fruiting and flowering phenology across a genus over 117 years [open access]
Bartlett KL, MA Austin, J Beck, A Zanne, and AB Smith. American Journal of Botany. In press.

Modeling the rarest of the rare: A comparison between multi-species distribution models, ensembles of small models, and single-species models at extremely low sample sizes [open access | pre-print]
Erickson KL and AB Smith. 2023. Ecography. In press.

Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: Implications for conservation status and actions [open access]
Beever, E.A., Wilkening, J.L., Billman, P., Thurman, L., Ernest, K., Wright, D., Gill, A, Craighead, A., Helmstetter, N.A., Svancara, L.K., Camp, M.J., Bhattacharyya, S., Fitzgerald, J., Hirose, J.M.R., Westover, M., Gerraty, F., Klingler, K., Schmidt, D.A., Ryals, D.,. Brown, R., Clark, S., Clayton, N. Collins, G., Cutting, K., Doak, D., Epps, C.W., Foley, J., French, J. Hayes, C.L., Mills, Z., Moyer-Horner, L., Nichols, L., Orlofsky, K., Peacock, M., Penzel, N. Peterson, J., Ramsay, N., Rickman, T., Robinson, M., Robison, H. Rowe, K., Rowe, K., Russello, M., Smith, A.B., Stewart, J.E.A.,  Thompson, W., Thorne, J.H., Watterhouse, M., Weber, S., and Wilson. 2023. Biological Conservation 282:109942.

Including imprecisely georeferenced specimens improves accuracy of species distribution models and estimates of niche breadth [article | open-access pre-print | request reprint]
AB Smith, SJ Murphy, D Henderson, and KL Erickson. 2023. Global Ecology & Biogeography. 32:342-355.

Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species [open access]
MA Austin, P Cole, K Olsen, and AB Smith. 2022. American Journal of Botany 109:1085-1096.

Reciprocal gardens as gold standard to detect local adaptation in grassland species: New opportunities moving into the 21st century [open access]
Johnson, L., Galliart, M., Alsdurf, J., Maricle, B.R., Baer, S.G., Bello, N.M., Gibson, D.J., and Smith, A.B. 2022. Journal of Ecology 110:1051-10771.

What can community ecology learn from species distribution models? [open access]
Murphy, S.J. and Smith, A.B. 2021. Ecosphere 12:e03864

  • One of the “top downloaded” articles 12 months after publication in Ecosphere across 2021-2022.

Sampling units derived from geopolitical boundaries bias biodiversity analyses [article]
Murphy, S.J. 2021. Global Ecology & Biogeography 30:1876-1888.

Accounting for imperfect detection in data from museums and herbaria when modeling species distributions: Combining and contrasting data-level versus model-level bias correction [open access]
Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B. 2021. Ecography 44:1341-1352.

The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: A systematic review [open access]
Santos, M.J., Smith*, A.B., Dekker, S.C., Eppinga, M.B., Leitão, P.J., Moreno-Mateos, D., Morueta-Holme, N., and Ruggieri, M.  2021. Landscape Ecology 36:3367-3382. * Equal contribution

The phylogeographic history of a range disjunction in eastern North America: the role of post-glacial expansion into newly suitable habitat [article | request reprint]
Mohn, R.A., Oleas, N.H., Smith, A.B.,Swift, J.F., Yatskievych, G., and Edwards, C. 2021. American Journal of Botany 108:1042-1057.

Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance [open access]
Smith, A.B. and Santos, M.J.  2020. Ecography 43:1801-1813.

Alternatives to genetic affinity as a context for within-species response to climate [article | request reprint]
Smith, A.B., Beever, E.A., Kessler, A.E., Johnston, A.N., Ray, C., Epps, C.W., Lanier, H.C., Klinger, R.C., Rodhouse, T.J., Varner, J., Perrine, J., Seglund, A., Hall, E., Galbreath, K., Anderson, C., Billman, P., Blatz, G., Brewer, J., Vardaro, J.C., Chalfoun, A.D., Collins, G., Craighead, A., Curlis, C., Daly, C., Doak, D.F., East, M., Edwards, M., Erb, L., Ernest, K.A., Fauver, B., Foresman, K., Goehring, K., Hagar, J., Hayes, C.L., Henry, P., Hersey, K., Hilty, S.L., Jacobson, J., Jeffress, M.R., Manning, T.E., Masching, A., Maxwell, B., McCollough, R., McFarland, C., Miskow, E., Morelli, T,L., Moyer-Horner, L., Mueller, M., Nugent, M., Pratt, B., Rasmussen-Flores, M., Rickman, T.H., Robison, H., Rodriguez, A., Rowe, K.M.C., Rowe, K.C., Russello, M.A., Saab, V., Schmidt, A., Stewart, J.A.E., Stuart, J.N., Svancara, L.K., Thompson, W., Timmins, J., Treinish, G., Waterhouse, M.D., Westover, M.K., Wilkening, J., and Yandow, L. 2019. Nature Climate Change 9:787-794.

The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat [article | request reprint]
Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E. A., Borgenson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S., Louis, E.E. Jr., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Lucien, Randriannarimanana, H.L.L., Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., and Baden, A.L. 2020. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. * Equal contribution

Inference of biogeographic history by formally integrating distinct lines of evidence: genetic, environmental niche, and fossil [open access]
Hoban, S., Dawson, A. Robinson, J., Smith, A.B., Strand, A. 2019. Ecography 42:1991-2011.

  • Runner-up for Ecography‘s E4 Award

Niche estimation above and below the species level [article | request reprint]
Smith, A.B., Godsoe, W., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Wang, H-H., and Warren, D. 2019. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 34:260-273.

Local adaptation, genetic divergence, and experimental natural selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient [open access]
Galliart, M., Bello, N., Knapp, M., Poland, J., St. Amand, P., Baer, S., Maricle, B., Smith, A.B., and Johnson, L.J.  2019.  Global Change Biology 25:850-868.

Conservation status and threat assessments for North American crop wild relatives [pre-print | book]
Frances, A., Smith, A.B., and Khoury, C. 2018.  Pp. 189-208 in North American Crop Wild Relatives: Conservation and Use (Springer, New York).

Up-scaling biodiversity: Estimating the species-area relationship from small samples [article]
Kunin, W.E., Harte, J., He, Fangliang, Hui, C., Jobe, R.T., Ostling, A., Polce, C., Šizling, A., Smith, A.B., Smith, Krister, Smart, S.M., Storch, D., Tjørve, E., Ugland, K-I., Ulrich, W., and Varma, V.  2018.  Ecological Monographs 88:170-187.

The relative influence of change in habitat and climate on elevation range limits in small mammals in Yosemite National Park, California, U.S.A. [open access]
Santos, M.J., Smith, A.B., Thorne, J.H., and Moritz, C.  2017.  Climate Change Responses 4:7.

Consumption-based conservation targeting: Linking biodiversity loss to upstream demand through a global wildlife footprint [open access | kudos]
Kitzes, J., Berlow, E., Conlisk, E., Erb, K., Iha, K., Martinez, N., Newman, E.A., Plutzar, C., Smith, A.B., and Harte, J.  2017.  Conservation Letters 10:531-538.

Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change [article | kudos]
Smith, A.B., Alsdurf, J., Knapp, M. and Johnson, L.C.  2017.  Global Change Biology 23:4365-4375.

A systematic assessment of threats affecting the rare plants of the United States [article page | kudos]
Hernández-Yáñez, H., Kos, J.T., Bast, M.D., Griggs, J.L., Hage, P.A., Killian, A.,Whitmore, M.B., Loza, M. L., Smith, A.B.  2016. Biological Conservation 203:260-267.

Climate change vulnerability assessment: Using CCVAs and interpreting their results [web site & pdf]
Huntley, B., Foden, W.B., Smith, A.B., Platts, P., Watson, J. and Garcia, R.A. 2016. Chapter 5. In W.B. Foden and B.E. Young, editors. IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Version 1.0. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. pp 33-48.

Climate change vulnerability assessment: Understanding and working with uncertainty [web site & pdf]
Huntley, B., Foden, W.B., Pearce-Higgins, J., and Smith, A.B. 2016. Chapter 6. In W.B. Foden and B.E. Young, editors. IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Version 1.0. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. pp 49–56.

Life at the top: Long-term demography, microclimatic refugia, and responses to climate change for a high-elevation southern Appalachian endemic plant [article]
Ulrey, C., Quiantana-Ascencio, P.F., Kauffman, G., Smith, A.B., and Menges, E.S.  2016.  Biological Conservation 200:80-92.

Shifting targets: spatial priorities for ex situ plant conservation depend on interactions between current threats, climate change, and uncertainty [article]
Smith, A.B., Long, Q.G., and Albrecht, M.A.  2016.  Biodiversity & Conservation 25:905-922.

Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography [open access]
Karger, D.N., Cord, A.F., Kessler, M., Kreft, H., Kühn, I., Pompe, S., Sandel, B., Cabral, J.S., Smith, A.B., Svenning, J-C., Tuomisto, H., Weigelt, P., and Wesche, K. 2016. Global Ecology & Biogeography 25:489-501.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project [open access]
Brandt, L., He, H., Iverson, L., Thompson, F., Butler, Patricia, Handler, S., Janowiak, M., Swanston, C., Albrecht, M., Blume-Weaver, R., Dijak, B., Deizman, P., DePuy, J., Dinkel, G., Fei, S., Jones-Farrand, T., Leahy, M., Matthews, S., Nelson, P., Oberle, B., Perez, J., Peters, M., Prasad, A., Schneiderman, J.E., Shuey, J., Smith, A.B., Studyvin, C., Tirpak, J., Walk, J., Wang, W., Watts, L., Weigel, D., Westin, S. 2014. General Technical Report NRS-124, Newtown Square, PSA, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.

Evaluation of species distribution models by resampling of sites surveyed a century ago by Joseph Grinnell [article]
Smith, A.B., M.J. Santos, M. S. Koo, K.C. Rowe, K.M.C. Rowe, J.L. Patton, S. Beissinger, and C. Moritz.  2013.  Ecography 36:1017-1031.

On evaluating species distribution models with random background sites in place of absences when test presences disproportionately sample suitable habitat [open access]
Smith, A.B.  2013.  Diversity and Distributions 19:867-872.

The relative influence of temperature, moisture, and their interaction on range limits of mammals over the past century [article]
Smith, A.B.  2013.  Global Ecology and Biogeography 22:334-343.

Characterizing scale-dependent community assembly using the functional-diversity–area relationship [article]
Smith, A.B., Sandel, B., Kraft, N., and Carey, S. 2013. Ecology 94:2392-2402.

Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge [open access]
Morelli, T.L., A.B. Smith, C. Kastely, I. Mastroserio, C. Moritz, and S. Beissinger.  2012.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 279:4279-4286.

Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere [article | kudos]
Barnosky, A.D, E.A. Hadly, J. Bascompte, E.L. Berlow, J.H. Brown, M. Fortelius, W.M. Getz, J. Harte, A. Hastings, P.A. Marquet, N.D. Martinez, A. Mooers, P. Roopnarine, G. Vermeij, J.W. Williams, R. Gillespie, J. Kitzes, C. Marshall, N. Matzke, D.P. Mindell, E. Revilla, A.B. Smith.  2012.  Nature 486:52-58.

  • Served as basis of consensus statement on sustainability signed by 1400+ scientists and presented to: the White House, Secretary of State John Kerry, President Xi Jinping (China), Governor Ichiro Matsui (Osaka, Japan), Energy & Climate Change Minister Gregory Barker, (United Kingdom), Governor Eruviel Avila (Mexico), Right Honourable Datuk Seri Panglima Musa Haji Aman (Minister  of the State of Sabah, Malaysia), and others.
  • Initiated policy brief requested by Governor Jerry Brown (California; press releases: UC Berkeley, Stanford).  Served as supporting document for MOU on climate change between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and California.
  • Article covered by: New York Times, BBC News, Los Angeles Times, WIRED, Bill Moyers, and Al Jazeera (op-ed).
  • Featured in documentary Demain (English-language release title Tomorrow) shown at COP21 and UNESCO.
  • Used as basis for Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications’ 2013 Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling.
  • F1000 Recommended

Convention on Migratory Species of Wild Animals [entry]
International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling [entry]
Sea Shepherd Conservation Society [entry]
Smith, A.B.  2011.  In Encyclopedia of Environmental Issues, Salem Press, Pasadena.

Caution with curves: Caveats for using the species-area relationship in conservation [article]
Smith, A.B.  2010.  Biological Conservation 143:555-564.

Biodiversity scales from plots to biomes with a universal species-area curve [article]
Harte, J., A.B. Smith, and D. Storch.  2009.  Ecology Letters 12:798-797.

Scale as a lurking factor: Incorporating scale-dependence in experimental ecology [article]
Sandel, B. and A.B. Smith. 2009. Oikos 118:1284-1291.

International Union for the Conservation of Nature [entry]
Dolphins and Porpoises [entry]
Smith, A.B.  2009.  In Ducth, S.I (ed.) Encyclopedia of Global Warming, Salem Press, Pasadena.

Maximum entropy and the state variable approach to macroecology [article]
Harte, J., Z.T. Zillo, E. Conlisk, and A.B. Smith.  2008.  Ecology 89:2700-2711.

The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities [article | kudos]
Srinivasan, U.T., S.P. Carey, E. Hallstein, P.A.T. Higgins, A.C. Kerr, L.E. Koteen, A.B. Smith, R. Watson, J. Harte, and R.B. Norgaard.  2008.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 105:1768-1773.

A theory of  spatial structure in ecological communities at multiple spatial scales [article]
Harte, J., E. Conlisk, A. Ostling, J.L. Green, A.B. Smith.  2005.  Ecological Monographs 75:179-197.

Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? [article]
Lloyd-Smith, J.O., P.C. Cross, C.J. Briggs, M. Daugherty, W.M. Getz, J. Latto, M.S. Sanchez, A.B. Smith, and A. Swei.  2005.  Trends in Ecology and Evolution 20:511-519.

Press

Matelach, G.K.  2015.  How the pika is key to measuring climate change.  Adventurers and Scientists for Conservation.  [web page]

Featured project on Institute of Museum and Library Sciences, February 2014.

Covered by Nature: Gewin, V.  2013.  Plan seeks ‘chaperones’ for threatened species: Botanical gardens proposed as stopping-off points for plant species as climate warms. [article page]

Featured in Scitable (Nature Education) blog: Wittington, K.  2013.  Plant pioneers: Assisting the migration of climate-endangered species. [web page]