Archive for the ‘threat analysis’ Category

The decimation of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat

Monday, December 23rd, 2019

It is honestly with sadness that I announce our new publication on the fate of Madagscar’s rainforest habitat in Nature Climate Change. Modeling deforestation assuming the lowest rate of deforestation across the period 2000-2014, I could only get the rainforest to last to the 2070s… and the highest rate of loss occurred in 2018, outside the time period over which I had data. The slight hope is that protected areas are deforested at a slower rate, and if were to (unrealistically) assume no new deforestation in these areas, then some rainforest habitat would remain.

Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E. A., Borgenson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S., Louis, E.E. Jr., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Lucien, Randriannarimanana, H.L.L., Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., and Baden, A.L. 2019. The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. * Equal contribution. (article | “behind the paper” | Washington Post | National Geographic | The Conversation | ScienceDaily)

A Perfect Storm of Threats

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016

Number of rare plant species threatened by recreation

Number of rare plant species threatened by recreation

Just out: a new analysis by Haydee Hernández-Yáñez and 7 other students at the University of Missouri-Saint Louis and myself on the threats that affect all known rare plants of the US! This is a reprise of the analysis by David Wilcove and colleagues from 1998.  We already got coverage on NPR and Inside Science!

Not appearing in the analysis is the spatial aspect (see image to the right) which we decided to drop near the end because of the article was getting too long.  Still, I’m hoping this will become something else on its own!

Hernández-Yáñez, H., Kos, J.T., Bast, M.D., Griggs, J.L., Hage, P.A., Killian, A., Whitmore, M.B., Loza, M. L., Smith, A.B.  2016.  A systematic assessment of threats affecting the rare plants of the United States.  Biological Conservation 203:260-267.