Archive for the ‘climate change’ Category

The decimation of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat

Monday, December 23rd, 2019

It is honestly with sadness that I announce our new publication on the fate of Madagscar’s rainforest habitat in Nature Climate Change. Modeling deforestation assuming the lowest rate of deforestation across the period 2000-2014, I could only get the rainforest to last to the 2070s… and the highest rate of loss occurred in 2018, outside the time period over which I had data. The slight hope is that protected areas are deforested at a slower rate, and if were to (unrealistically) assume no new deforestation in these areas, then some rainforest habitat would remain.

Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E. A., Borgenson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S., Louis, E.E. Jr., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Lucien, Randriannarimanana, H.L.L., Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., and Baden, A.L. 2019. The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. * Equal contribution. (article | “behind the paper” | Washington Post | National Geographic | The Conversation | ScienceDaily)

NSF Advances in Biological Informatics

Friday, March 2nd, 2018

Awesome news! We were just informed that the National Science Foundation will fund our proposal to use pollen, genetic, and distributional data to estimate the spatial dynamics of how trees migrated poleward after the last glacial maximum.  This is a collaborative project with Sean Hoban (Morton Arboretum), Andria Dawson (Mount Royal University), John Robinson (Michigan State University), and Allan Strand (College of Charleston). We will be hiring two postdocs over the 3 years of the grant. The first position will be based at The Morton Arboretum near Chicago, Illinois and the second at Michigan State University.


Phenotypic distribution modeling

Tuesday, November 14th, 2017

Our latest paper in Global Change Biology on modeling intraspecific phenotypic variation has gotten great press!  Combined, the news outlets covering our research reach ~78 million people and included The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, US News and World Report, The Topeka Capital Journal, The Manhattan Mercury, and numerous other regional newspapers, radio stations (e.g., KWMU 90.7), TV stations (e.g., KWCH12), and science news websites (e.g., Science News Online)!

Smith, A.B., Alsdurf, J., Knapp, M. and Johnson, L.C.  2017.  Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change.  Global Change Biology 23:4365-4375. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13666

Change in biomass of Andropogon gerardii due to climate change

Change in biomass of Andropogon gerardii due to climate change

A Perfect Storm of Threats

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016

Number of rare plant species threatened by recreation

Number of rare plant species threatened by recreation

Just out: a new analysis by Haydee Hernández-Yáñez and 7 other students at the University of Missouri-Saint Louis and myself on the threats that affect all known rare plants of the US! This is a reprise of the analysis by David Wilcove and colleagues from 1998.  We already got coverage on NPR and Inside Science!

Not appearing in the analysis is the spatial aspect (see image to the right) which we decided to drop near the end because of the article was getting too long.  Still, I’m hoping this will become something else on its own!

Hernández-Yáñez, H., Kos, J.T., Bast, M.D., Griggs, J.L., Hage, P.A., Killian, A., Whitmore, M.B., Loza, M. L., Smith, A.B.  2016.  A systematic assessment of threats affecting the rare plants of the United States.  Biological Conservation 203:260-267.